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Home » Unlabelled » Keystone's Midday Market Action 9/25/12; Fed's Plosser Says QE3 Will Not Spur Growth; Spain Riots

Keystone's Midday Market Action 9/25/12; Fed's Plosser Says QE3 Will Not Spur Growth; Spain Riots

The Consumer Confidence number beats expectations printing a reading above 70 and the broad indexes bounce higher on the news. This number places the confidence at levels not seen since February-March as the markets topped last time. The SPX is up thru 1461 so the bulls are looking for further upside, the HOD thus far 1462.71.  The 8 MA remains under the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart, bearish, but continued market bouyancy will change this picture as the day moves along.  UTIL is 477 and SOX is 389-ish, both well under the levels the bulls need to sustain market upside, 483, and 395, respectively. Thus, as long as UTIL is under 483 and SOX under 395, the market bulls have no where to go. If the bulls break thru either one of these levels, that is a different story.

Both the SPX and COMPQ are up exactly +0.4% so tech is coincidental with the markets and not leading the upside, which hints that the upside has no legs. The beat goes on. Spain needs to put everyone out of their week-long misery. The minute clarity on Spain is provided, the markets will choose a direction.

Note Added 9/25/12 at 12:21 PM: UTIL and SOX continue to lounge around in the bear camp so this keeps any upside market move in check.  Tech is slightly leading the broad market higher as the day moves along which helps the bulls maintain market buoyancy.  VIX is flat.  The 8 MA remains under the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart and now the 8 MA is curling back downwards in concert with the SPX leaking lower, now printing a 1457 handle. The bears remain in control but Spain is going to tell the driver which way to go. Watch the 10-day MA at 1457.85, above or below will tell you who is favored as price meanders along.

Note Added 9/25/12 at 1:47 PM:  The SPX is falling thru the lower trend line at 1455-ish shown on the 30-minute chart this morning which would signal a reversal of the three-week September uptrend. If price continues lower, the two-month lower trend line for price would be the next downside support target in the 1435-1445 zone. That zone failing would constitute a serious rupture and failure of the bull rally. Tech is now leading the broad market to the downside. Perhaps trader's are no longer willing to wait for Spain. The support in this area is 1453, 1448 and very strong support at 1446. The euro is 129.46 helping the bulls keep the markets elevated. The bears need to see the euro move down to 129 and fail underneath which would create market selling. The business news channels report that Spain will make a budget announcement on Thursday, so the anticipation is that trader's will hear Spain's plan concerning a bailout between now and then.

Note Added 9/25/12 at 3:14 PM:  Whoopsies daisies, the markets slipped on a banana peel. Here's the test of strong support at SPX 1446. The 20-day MA at 1436.70 wiill likely serve as an additional target as the hours and days move along. Earnings continue to receive mark-downs ahead of reporting season. Spain images of riots are on television further fraying trader nerves. Support in this area is 1446, 1444, 1441, and 1440. Yesterday the island reversal vibe was discussed for AAPL. Price is at 677, the bottom of the island. If Apple collapses from 677 down to 670 and lower, in a heartbeat, that would create an island reversal. Bring up a 2-hour chart and check it out. VIX tags 15. SOX is at 380 now, an epic collapse from 395 in only a couple days; weak semiconductors creates strong market negativity.

Note Added 9/25/12 at 9:03 PM:  The 1440 support held late day.  Fed's Plosser said QE3 will not spur growth, the television screens are lit up with Spain riot footage and the homebuilders are downgraded, a triple whammy affect that buckled the markets. Spain will be the key focus tomorrow. European fears have jumped back to the front burner today. The TRIN closes at 3.08, an uber bearish level which begs to see a market bounce to alleviate the bearish pressure. However, the uber high TRIN ususally comes on a day with an uber low NYAD (-2000 or lower), but the NYAD only printed -1400 today. Thus, the TRIN may want to stay elevated to allow the NYAD to experience some additional downside pressure tomorrow, then the TRIN and NYAD together can help create a dead cat bounce for the markets after the low NYAD print occurs. The euro continues its drama at 129. Below 129 will usher in more market selling. The bulls need to keep the euro above 129 and move it higher to help the equity markets recover. If the futures are even only a hair negative come tomorrow morning, the bears will accelerate the downside move after the opening bell. The bulls will try to keep the futures green with all their might.
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